Tuesday’s NBA Conference Finals betting preview and odds: Warriors at Thunder

 

Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder (+1, 221.5)

Thunder lead series 2-1

The road to back-to-back championships for the Golden State Warriors ran straight into a wall in Game 3 of the Western Conference finals as the Oklahoma City Thunder dominated in a 133-105 triumph. The Warriors will try to pick themselves back up and avoid a 3-1 hole when they visit the Thunder for Game 4 on Tuesday.

Golden State was the more aggressive team in Game 2 and came away with a 118-91 victory, seemingly correcting all the mistakes that plagued the team in the second half of a Game 1 loss. Those mistakes came back in a big way in Game 3 as Oklahoma City raced past the Warriors, turning every rebound and every errant pass into an opportunity to get out in transition. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined for 63 points, 16 rebounds and 14 assists in the emphatic win and most importantly sliced their turnover count from 11 in Game 2 to five in Game 3. “My teammates did a great job of driving the basketball and taking the pressure off of me,” Durant told reporters. “Not letting me handle the ball as much and just taking the pressure off me, and I was trying to make the correct passes and the simple passes.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as one-point road favorites after getting destroyed as road faves in Game 3. The line moved briefly to 1.5 Monday morning but has since returned back to the opening number. The total opened at 222 and, at the time of publication for this preview, has come down a half point to 221.5. Check out the complete line history here.

MATCHUP CHART:

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (82-13, 53-40-2 ATS, 51-43-1 O/U): Twice during their run to the 2015 title the Warriors fell behind 2-1 in a series before ultimately winning, but never were they as thoroughly crushed as they were on Sunday. “We got our butts kicked,” Golden State coach Steve Kerr told reporters. “It doesn’t matter if (the loss was by) one point or 30. You’ve got to look at the tape and you’ve got to figure out how you can be better and then you come back with a better effort. But they were the more desperate team (Sunday), they were beating us to loose balls, to rebounds, and our quick shots just fed their transition.” Warriors All-Star Draymond Green was held to six points on 1-of-9 shooting in the loss and was whistled for a flagrant foul for kicking Oklahoma center Steven Adams in the groin in the second quarter.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (65-31, 46-49-1 ATS, 46-50 O/U): The game was knotted at 40 with under nine minutes left in the first half when Oklahoma City put its foot on the gas, outscoring the Warriors 32-7 over the rest of the half while holding the best shooting team in the NBA to 2-of-23 from the field over that span. The Thunder followed that up with a 45-point third quarter to stun the defending champs and were matter-of-fact about their dominating effort after the game. “We were able to catch the ball, drive, get to the paint and kick-out,” Durant told reporters. “We were letting the ball move and our bodies move and that helped us out.”

TWEET BEAT:

TRENDS:

* Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
* Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
* Over is 4-1 in Thunder last 5 home games.
* Home team is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
* Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Oklahoma City.

COVERS CONSENSUS: As usual, the Warriors are picking up the majority of the betting action – even as after getting beaten so badly in Game 3. 61 percent of the Covers Consensus picks are on the Dubs. Currently, 69 percent of the wagers are on the Over. View full consensus data here.

HOME COURT DANCE TEAM:

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