UFC 192: Main Card Betting Analysis

Johny Hendricks and Tyron Woodley will meet in the co-main event at UFC 192 at the Toyota Center in Houston Saturday, with the winner likely to be next in line for a welterweight title fight.  The current line at 5Dimes favors ‘Bigg Rigg’ over ‘The Chosen One.’

“Woodley has been campaigning for this fight for a long time. He’s smart enough to realize this is the W he needs in order to get a title shot,” UFC commentator Jon Anik says. “Easier said than done, of course, but on paper, I think the fight is closer than the betting line indicates.”

Hendricks’ style has been evolving as of late to incorporate a grinding style of fighting leading to the former welterweight champion reaching the judges scorecard in his past five fights (3-2).

“Sure, Hendricks has a huge edge in championship experience, but I believe these guys are fairly evenly matched,” Anik explains.

Ever since Woodley came to the UFC from Strikeforce he has perpetually been just one step behind the championship picture. Woodley’s finishing power may be his biggest advantage heading into this fight with four of his five fights in the UFC ending by T/KO.

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see Woodley’s power play a role,” Anik theorizes. “I think he has what it takes to finish Johny, who will be hard to outpoint over 15 minutes. So I see some value on Woodley here.”

Value to be Found Between Bader and Evans?

Rashad Evans makes his long awaited return to the octagon at UFC 192, but will not have an easy road back as he faces off against top contender Ryan Bader. Despite a nearly two year layoff, Evans is currently the favorite according to {custom:5dimes-link].

“The betting line is a direct reflection of Evans’ layoff, which dates to UFC 167 in November of 2013, but I also think it speaks to Bader’s improvements as a fighter, both technically and athletically,” Anik explains.

Bader enters UFC 192 on a four-fight winning streak, including an impressive and gutsy performance against Phil Davis in January.

However, Anik is unsure if there is value in the fight.

“When the line opened, I immediately saw value on Bader because he was close to +200. Now, seeing Rashad in that -160 range is somewhat enticing,” Anik says. “I still think he has the speed and power advantage against Bader, but it’s hard to know what you’re [going to] get, given the injury history and the layoff.”

“So ultimately, this is a competitive fight one I wouldn’t touch because the value has gone away from Bader.”

Full Breakdown of Cormier vs Gustafsson

If you are looking for Jon Anik’s in-depth analysis of the main event between Daniel Cormier and Alexander Gustafsson for the UFC light heavyweight championship, you can check it out here.

UFC Welterweight 3 Rounds

Odds as of October 1 at 5Dimes

  • Johny Hendricks -355
  • Tyron Woodley +295
UFC Light Heavyweight 3 Rounds

Odds as of October 1 at 5Dimes

  • Ryan Bader +140
  • Rashad Evans -160


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