UFC 211 is easily the biggest event the company has put on so far in 2017. The card is absolutely stacked with amazing fights and, though it will certainly run at least eight hours start to finish, should be a thrill ride. However, with so many close fights, finding value in straight-up lines isn’t going to be the easiest for this card.
Have no fear. I took the time to pour over the massive list of prop bets for the card and pick out the ones that offer the best value. I am not guaranteeing each of these but they all have enough reason behind them to tempt maybe a little sprinkle for bettors in search of a decent payday.
Jessica Andrade Wins In Round 1 (+650) Or Round 2 (+850)
Jessica Andrade is the most dangerous fighter Joanna Jedrzejczyk has ever faced. Andrade is hyper aggressive and strong as an ox. She is one of the few 115-pound fighters with legitimate KO power plus she is plenty capable of finishing a fight on the mat as well.
Andrade’s best course of victory is to get after JJ early. Jedrzejczyk tends to get better as a fight goes on and once she really gets comfortable controlling the space of a fight, it’s almost impossible to stop her. If Andrade is to beat Jedrzejczyk, she needs to get in her face and force the champ to the fence quickly. There she can either overpower Jedrzejczyk for a takedown or let go one of her ridiculous flurries.
You can get Andrade at plus-money to win straight up and there is certainly value there. I just believe Andrade’s path to the gold needs to be a quick one.
Demian Maia vs Jorge Masvidal Goes To Decision (+120)
Many people are going to be calling for Demian Maia by submission in this one, which does hold good value, but I have a sense this is going the distance. Maia will almost certainly take Jorge Masvidal down early in this fight but I believe in Gamebred’s technical ability to avoid being mauled immediately. Then, it’s all about Maia’s gas tank.
Maia isn’t known for having the best gas tank in the world. If Masvidal can survive on the ground or keep this fight standing through the first round then his cardio starts taking over. Maia will slow down and Masvidal can pick apart his opponent on the feet.
I believe this is a classic seesaw fight where one competitor dominates the early going, fades and then gives way to his opponent. I think both Maia and Masvidal have the ability to survive the potential onslaught from their opponent and last 15 minutes.
Yair Rodriguez Wins By T/KO (+450)
I can hear people calling me crazy now. Yair doesn’t really knock people out. Frankie Edgar has never lost by stoppage in his illustrious career. I admit, this is likely the wildest prop I’m suggesting but I think it’s at least worth a look.
Edgar is a fantastic wrestler who meshing his striking and grappling together seamlessly. I truly expect that Edgar will get a hold of Rodriguez, though it will likely take a few attempts. That’s when I see things getting iffy for Frankie.
Rodriguez will have a huge size advantage and that will become very apparent when these two fighters clinch. “El Pantera” will be able to land powerful knees at will once locked up along the fence. If the fight does go to the ground, Rodriguez has great scrambling abilities and an aggressive guard game that you can’t overlook.
I wouldn’t be banking on Rodriguez knocking Edgar out but overwhelming him and forcing the ref to stop the fight doesn’t sound totally crazy to me. It’s not the most likely outcome but I would feel justified backing this prop with this type of value.
Gadzhimurad Antigulov Wins Inside The Distance (-185)
Betting -185 likely doesn’t seem like much value but when you compare it to the -400 you’d be laying to take Gadzhimurad Antigulov straight-up, it is plenty. Antigulov is a powerful, grinding grappler who has plenty of cardio to go 15 minutes. Once a fight goes to the ground, which is almost a guarantee, Antigulov is a submission ace that finishes his opponent without question.
Antigulov’s opponent, Joachim Christensen is fine. He is technically sound in the striking game and in the clinch but he’s a lamb to the slaughter in this fight.
You shouldn’t get cute with this one. Antigulov will crush Christensen and the likelihood of the Dane surviving 15 minutes is very very low.
For a complete breakdown of UFC 211, check out my predictions and picks for the card here.