Scoring is up in the NBA this year, and the sudden influx of offense has had a direct impact in the sports betting world. As teams pile on the points, oddsmakers have been forced to increase totals more than ever before. Take tonight’s Golden State Warriors-Denver Nuggets contest, for example.
At the time of writing, Bovada was offering the OVER/UNDER for the tilt at a sky-high 239.5 – large enough to make it the second-biggest total of the 2016-17 season. Only the Warriors-Rockets game on January 20 had a larger number (242), and UNDER bettors ended up cashing in that matchup due to the 125-108 outcome.
The best recipe for OVERs is a solid offense and a weak defense, and the Nuggets have that in spades. Mike Malone’s club is averaging 110.5 points per game (fifth in the NBA) but is surrendering a brutal 111.9 PPG (28th in the NBA). That’s resulted in Malone’s club becoming the best OVER team in the league at 37-16 O/U.
The Warriors’ scoring prowess is well known, but they’ve gone just 24-30 O/U this season. Sportsbooks consistently give the Dubs extremely high totals, so even though they’re the best offensive team in the NBA, it’s hard for them to consistently cash OVER tickets.
So, what’s happening when totals get this high? There have been 20 games this year with closing numbers of at least 229, and the O/U has gone 12-7-1.
For more Nuggets-related info, check out Joe Osborne’s breakdown of how to bet Denver.
Here’s a look at the 20 highest totals of the NBA campaign and how they played out at the betting window:
It’s over, ladies and gentlemen!
|Date||Away||Home||Away Score||Home Score||Closing Total||OU Result|
|20 January 2017||Warriors||Rockets||125.0||108.0||242.0||U|
|15 January 2017||Rockets||Nets||137.0||112.0||234.5||O|
|17 December 2016||Trail Blazers||Warriors||90.0||135.0||234.5||U|
|11 February 2017||Suns||Rockets||102.0||133.0||233.0||O|
|1 December 2016||Rockets||Warriors||132.0||127.0||232.0||O|
|11 February 2017||Nuggets||Cavaliers||109.0||125.0||232.0||O|
|26 January 2017||Suns||Nuggets||120.0||127.0||232.0||O|
|2 January 2017||Nuggets||Warriors||119.0||127.0||231.5||O|
|18 January 2017||Thunder||Warriors||100.0||121.0||231.0||U|
|22 December 2016||Warriors||Nets||117.0||101.0||231.0||U|
|2 January 2017||Wizards||Rockets||91.0||101.0||230.5||U|
|17 January 2017||Nuggets||Lakers||127.0||121.0||230.0||O|
|4 November 2016||Warriors||Lakers||97.0||117.0||230.0||U|
|25 November 2016||Warriors||Lakers||109.0||85.0||230.0||U|
|26 December 2016||Suns||Rockets||115.0||131.0||230.0||O|
|12 December 2016||Nets||Rockets||118.0||122.0||229.5||O|
|2 February 2017||Warriors||Clippers||133.0||120.0||229.5||O|
|10 February 2017||Nuggets||Knicks||131.0||123.0||229.0||O|
|23 November 2016||Lakers||Warriors||106.0||149.0||229.0||O|
|25 January 2017||Rockets||Celtics||109.0||120.0||229.0||P|