West Region May Not Be As Easy As You Think

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A lot of people take a look at the March Madness bracket and see the West Region as the easiest path for the top seeds. It’s easy to see why, as the middle of the bracket is filled with some pretty nondescript programs. Let’s face it: every pundit is saying that Gonzaga got the easiest path to the Final Four for any No. 1 seed in any region.

Let’s dive into the 2017 March Madness West Region and take a good look to find bettors some value or some bets to avoid.

Favorites: Gonzaga Bulldogs (+160)

As I said above, Gonzaga has a pretty easy path to at least the Elite Eight. Their first-round match with San Diego State is a cakewalk and a second-rounder against either Northwestern or Vanderbilt shouldn’t exactly strike fear into the Zags. The Sweet 16 could be a little more challenging as they could have a date with West Virginia or Notre Dame, both teams that have proven to be able to hang with the best teams in the nation. Assuming the Bulldogs get to the Elite Eight, they could be facing a scary Arizona team, if chalk holds. Still, Gonzaga beat the Wildcats early this season in non-conference play.

This Gonzaga team reminds me a lot of Villanova last year. They both feature versatile all-Americans in the backcourt (Nigel Williams-Goss and Josh Hart), a deep rotation of players and a squad committed to playing just as tough defensively as they do offensively. Gonzaga’s numbers actually compare favorably to Villanova’s last year entering the Madness, though the Bulldogs do play in the much easier WCC. Plus, both programs have dealt with years of people questioning and saying they can’t win the big one.

This isn’t your daddy’s Gonzaga squad. This team is an offensive juggernaut that can play from the outside in or inside out thanks to the versatility of their backcourt and Przemek Karnowski’s inside presence and passing ability.

Overrated: Florida State Seminoles (+800)

I’m going to open this by saying that I’ve been extremely high on this FSU squad since before the season began. I even wrote about the Seminoles offering tremendous value for bettors before the opening tipoff. And this team still shows all the things that excited me before the season started. They are supremely athletic, they can run almost any opponent out of the gym and Dwayne Bacon has been a monster offensively.

However, this team is terribly streaky and has been bad away from Tallahassee. The Seminoles have spent much of the conference schedule alternating small winning and losing streaks without really patching together any prolonged success. However, it’s the road factor that really terrifies me about FSU. Every loss the Seminoles have had this season has come on the road or at a neutral site, including embarrassing losses to Temple, Georgia Tech and Pitt. Maybe this won’t be a big issue in the first two rounds, as FSU will be playing in Orlando less than a two-hour flight down the coast. But come the Sweet 16 and the Elite Eight, FSU will need to travel to the other side of the country to play in San Jose.

We have really seen star Jonathan Isaac show his age on the road, as the freshman is averaging just 8.8 points while shooting 40.4 percent away from Tallahassee in ACC play. Though his rebounding numbers have been climbing in those affairs — he posted 12 and 15 rebounds in FSU’s two conference tournament games — without him scoring more, the Seminoles start to become much more dependent on their backcourt. I’m not saying that Isaac is a bad player or that he won’t be great in the NBA, but he is young and still figuring out how to use his size. If he doesn’t implement it properly during the tournament, I don’t think FSU can survive too long.

Dark Horse: Xavier Musketeers (+5000)

Yet another preface to one of these sections: I really wanted to pick Notre Dame here. However, everyone is going to be on the Irish considering they nearly won the ACC, so I’m digging a bit deeper.

Xavier is a good basketball team, despite what their recent record says. They are clearly capable of beating good teams — they have victories over Butler, Creighton and Providence – but have struggled in a strong Big East. However, the Musketeers have a very winnable couple of games to open the slate. Xavier opens the tourney against Maryland, which turns the ball over a lot and has not exactly been on the right side of the ledger lately. A second-round contest would then see the Musketeers facing either FSU or FGCU, both teams Xavier can bully physically. At that point, you have an experienced Xavier team rolling and feeling confident, which is a dangerous thing.

Many people will point to Edmond Sumner’s absence and write off Xavier, which I can understand. Xavier is not as good without him in the lineup. Malcolm Bernard is a good passer but is turnover-prone himself. If the senior can do a better job holding on to the ball, then Xavier should outperform its seeding. Plus, Trevon Bluiett has the ability to take over a game. The junior has averaged 18.1 points per game this season and has scored more than 20 on 16 occasions, including a ridiculous 40-point performance that saw him shoot 9-for-11 from deep against Cincinnati.

It’s not going to be easy for the Musketeers. They have an uphill battle and are still trying to cope without Sumner. However, if this team clicks, then they can shock the world like Syracuse did last tourney.

2017 NCAA Tournament – West Region Betting Odds

Odds as of March 14 at Bovada

  • Gonzaga +160
  • Arizona +200
  • West Virginia +550
  • Florida State +800
  • St. Mary’s +1200
  • Notre Dame +1200
  • Maryland +2200
  • Northwestern +5000
  • VCU +5000
  • Vanderbilt +5000
  • Xavier +5000
  • Florida Gulf Coast +10000
  • Princeton +12500
  • Bucknell +15000
  • North Dakota +20000
  • South Dakota State +20000

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