NFL season win totals are popping up like spring tulips and there’s one bet that seems to be just too attractive not to pick.
“We’ve had so much business. A lot of it on Patriots OVER and in all honesty I think I opened that a little bit too low,” says Chris Andrews (@andrewssports), the man who runs things behind the counter at South Point sportsbook in Las Vegas.
South Point was the first book to offer season win totals and they started with the Pats at 11 wins, which was bet up all the way to 12.5. That’s a huge number – which is also where it sits at the Westgate and Bovada – and it means the Pats can only lose three games this season in order to cash that one.
That’s the highest season win total I can remember. Usually the highest numbers are 10.5 – maybe 11 – and only two other teams opened that high this year (Steelers and Seahawks at 10.5 each).
Andrews and his crew do the numbers by inputting NFL power ratings for every team and they compare based on the schedule. Adjustments are made from there based on a handicap of public perception and then the money and injuries can move things from there.
It’s always a little ballsy being the first ones to post numbers like this, especially when we’re talking about the NFL. The early lines typically attract serious bettors with limits of $2,000 at South Point.
“When we put ‘em up, (South Point’s) Jimmy Vaccaro told me: ‘I think we’ll probably do a million dollars on these things.’ It sounds like a lot but to tell you the truth, we’re a couple weeks in and I think maybe Jimmy’s right. We’ve had a ton of money already.”
The Raiders were another popular target. Bettors have jumped on them to go OVER 9.5 wins and they’re sitting at 10 at a couple books. Andrews said it’s common to see a lot of Raiders fans in Las Vegas but news of the team move there next March seems to have brought out even more.
South Point has seen some pretty balanced action overall but the Browns and Niners are a couple teams he pointed out that are seeing some OVER money after both opened at 4.5 wins.
“The Niners kinda surprised me the Browns really didn’t,” says Andrews. “The 49ers… I know they have a new coach but boy the cupboard’s kinda bare. We’re not sure who their starting quarterback is going to be.”
I’m with Andrews on this one. Too many question marks there for me but you won’t hear any complaints from the book.
“I like to have opinions and people with money. That’s what makes the world go round for us.”
Follow me on Twitter @JonnyOddsShark