Why wiseguys are timing these college football bets perfectly in Week 10


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Each week during the college football season, Covers Expert Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet know

UCF Knights at Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (-16.5)

Tulsa opened -14 over Central Florida, and the early money quickly came in on the home favorite pushing the line up nearly three points. I’m expecting more money to come in on Tulsa, so laying less than -17 now would be a prudent move.

This is simply a play against Central Florida more than anything else. The Knights are 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS this season. And since George O’Leary stepped down, the team has packed the season in. Central Florida has scored 16 points or less in eight of their nine games while losing their last four games by a combined score of 181-46.

Spread to wait on

Arizona State Sun Devils (+2.5) at Washington State Cougars

Arizona State has lost back-to-back games with its last being a 61-55 loss to Oregon in three overtimes. But the Sun Devils have had time to get over that defeat as it came on a Thursday night. Washington State is also off a tough loss: a 30-28 defeat to Stanford after blowing a 22-10 second-half lead.

My power ratings actually make Arizona State a 1-point favorite in this game, so there is value on the Sun Devils as an underdog, especially at +3 or more. Arizona State has a little scheduling advantage as well since they had an extra couple of days to prepare for this game. Wait this out, and take Arizona State once this line hits the key number of +3 or higher.

Total to watch
  
California Golden Bears at Oregon Ducks (76)

California and Oregon play completely different styles of football. The Golden Bears play a wide-open offense while throwing the football on the majority of their plays. The Ducks run an up-tempo offense that simply wears defenses down as the game goes on.

This total opened at 74 and it was quickly bet up to the current price of 76.  The matchup sets up perfectly for a high-scoring game. California’s defense has been shredded for 208 rushing yards per game on the road while Oregon’s defense has been torched thru the air for 318 passing yards per game. Both offenses should have a lot of success, so a shootout is expected Saturday.

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