Why wiseguys are timing these college football bets perfectly in Week 9


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Each week during the college football season, Covers Expert Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now  

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-6) at Virginia Cavaliers

Novice bettors tend to remember what they saw last and that was Georgia Tech beating Florida State, giving the Seminoles their first loss of the season. National TV winners tend to get bet the following week, and that’s the case here with the Yellow Jackets.

Georgia Tech opened between -3 and -4 at various sportsbooks, and early money pushed this line up to -6. The line is still short based on my power ratings, as I made Georgia Tech -7.5 over Virginia. The Cavaliers are not a good team and with a mishmash offensive line because of injuries, it’s hard to see Virginia trading points with the Yellow Jackets. Lay the -6 now before the line goes up to the key number of -7.

Spread to wait on

Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden Gophers (+14)

Michigan is not in the best of spots for this game at Minnesota. The Wolverines blew their biggest game to date at home against their rival Michigan State on a punting mishap. A loss like that tends to linger despite Michigan having a bye last week. Now off a week of rest, they are laying way too many points on the road against a decent team.

My power ratings make Michigan -10.5 over Minnesota, so there is some line value on the Golden Gophers. Minnesota is also off a bye and, since the Gophers lost their previous home game before the week off, the team will be primed for a peak performance. Wait this game out and take Minnesota +14.5 or more.

Total to watch  

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders (79)

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech figures to be high-scoring shootout. The teams match up extremely well for a lot of points to be scored. The Cowboys have a potent passing attack that averages 333 yards per game on 8.7 yards per pass attempt.

Texas Tech also owns a powerful passing offense with the Red Raiders throwing for 406 yards per game on 8.3 yards per pass attempt. Overall, Oklahoma State’s offense is averaging 40.3 points per game while Texas Tech’s offense is averaging 46.6 points per game. The two teams should both eclipse the 40-point mark with relative ease.

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