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There’s been a shift towards lower-scoring games since Week 11 of the NFL season and that has been a windfall for Under bettors. Over the last six weeks of football action, NFL games are 35-57-1 Over/Under – a 62 percent lean toward the Under.
In fact, Week 13’s 9-7 O/U record was the only week to pay out more on the Over since Week 11, when NFL games went 4-10 Over/Under. In the three weeks since Week 13, NFL games are going Under 68 percent of the time with a 15-32-1 Over/Under count.
The most profitable slate for Under backers was Week 15, which had 13 of its 16 contests finish below the posted total. An average of 36.44 points was scored in those games against an average total of 46.25 – nearly a 10-point differential. Week 15’s scoring average of 36.44 was the lowest average score for any week between Week 11 and Week 16 in six seasons.
One would think a decline in scoring as the season gets closer to the playoffs would be the norm. However, looking back at Week 11 to Week 16 scoring averages since 2009, there is no steady drop off in offensive production.
In each year but 2014 (save Week 17) and 2009, the average score has finished above the average total from Weeks 11 to 16. From 2010 to 2013, games played between Week 11 and Week 16 produced a 189-182-5 Over/Under record – 51 percent for the Over.
In that 2009 season, games played between Week 11 and 16 finished with a 35-58-4 Over/Under count – a 62 percent lean to the Under. Those games averaged 42.38 points, up against a betting total of 42.82. Week 17 of that season punched out a 9-7 Over/Under record and proceeding playoff games finished 7-4 Over/Under
Is that what NFL bettors can expect in Week 17 of this year, and the upcoming playoffs?
Currently, the average total for Week 17’s games is just over 44 points (only 12 of the 16 scheduled games currently have posted totals). That average Over/Under of 44.08 points is the lowest total in the last six weeks.
On the season, NFL games have gone 114-125-1 Over/Under – a 52.3 percent edge for the Under.