Wiseguys have flagged these college football games as lines to watch for Week 4

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Each week during the college football season, Covers Expert Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now
 
Iowa (-13.5) at Rutgers

This line briefly opened -13 and quickly moved to -14 on Sunday night.  However, it has since come back down to -13.5 in most locations.  The public will likely push this line back up to the key number of -14 or more later this week.  Iowa will be in a foul mood after losing 23-21 at home last Saturday as a -14.5 point favorite versus North Dakota State.  However, the Bison have won the FCS national championship for five straight seasons and they have now defeated six straight FBS opponents.  Iowa will actually be facing a weaker opponent at Rutgers this week.

Iowa won their other two games by 24 and 39 point margins this season.  Rutgers has already lost by 35 points against Washington this month and the Scarlet Knights have absolutely no passing attack.  Rutgers is averaging just 5.1 yards per pass and only 50.5% completions (versus opponents that allow 6.1 ypp and 58.7%).  This makes a backdoor cover late in the game less likely.

Spread to wait on

Louisville at Marshall (+25.5)

Louisville opened as a -24 point road favorite and was quickly bet up to -25.5.  The public will likely continue to push this line higher, especially after last week’s impressive 63-20 blowout win versus Florida State.  However, this is a terrible scheduling situation for Louisville.  The Cardinals are coming off two national TV conference wins and have another huge game on deck next week at Clemson.

Marshall is coming a bad home loss last week as a -17.5 point favorite versus Akron.  The Herd suffered from a 4-1 turnover deficit in that game, but still gained 560 total yards.  Marshall has enough offense to trade points with Louisville as the Herd is averaging 50 points per game this season on 545 total yards per game (6.9 yards per play).

Total to watch

California at Arizona State (82.5)
 
California had the highest total last week versus Texas (O/U 80.5) and those two teams combined to score 93 points in a 50-43 California home win as a +7.5 point underdog.  Arizona State had the highest posted total two weeks ago (O/U 80) versus Texas Tech in the Sun Devils 68-55 home win.

Now these two teams once again find themselves with the highest posted total on the board.  This O/U line opened 80.5 and was quickly bet up to 82.5.  California is averaging 47.0 points per game on 580 yards (6.6 yards per play), while allowing 39.7 ppg and 504 yards (6.5 yppl).  Arizona State is averaging 48.0 points per game on 526 yards (6.5 yppl), while allowing 32.0 ppg and 453 yards (6.5 yppl).  These two teams played last season and the game soared Over the posted total (O/U 68) with 94 total points scored in a 48-46 California home win.

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