Sharps are closely monitoring these Week 10 college football games


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Each week during the college football season, Covers Expert Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now:

Washington (-16.5) at California

This line opened -15.5 and was quickly bet up to -16.5.  Play it now before it rises higher to the key number of -17 or more.  Washington is rolling with a 8-0 SU start and is averaging 46.1 points per game on 7.4 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 34.5 ppg and 6.2 yppl).  Their defense has also been extremely strong, allowing just 15.7 points per game on 4.6 yards per play (versus opponents that average 24.9 ppg and 5.5 yppl).

California is 4-4 SU this year and they have a strong offense, but their defense has been horrendous.  The Golden Bears are allowing 41.7 points per game and 506 yards per game on 6.3 yards per play.   They have been especially bad against conference opponents, allowing 45, 49, 47, and 51 points in four of their five games versus Pac-12 teams this season.  Washington has a revenge motive after losing at home last year, and the Huskies easily won at California 31-7 two years ago.

Spread to wait on:

Nevada (+14.5) at New Mexico

This line opened at +12.5 and was quickly bet a couple points higher.  It is understandable as Nevada has been a money burner this season, going just 1-7 ATS.  However, this is actually a good scheduling situation for Nevada as they are coming off a bye week which gave them extra time to rest and prepare for this game.  Despite the poor pointspread record, Nevada has been a competitive team this season with only one loss coming by more than 10 points in their past six games.

New Mexico returns home off a road underdog win at Hawaii last week and the Lobos also have two more road games on deck the next two weeks.  New Mexico might overlook this single home game, especially as a double-digit favorite.  The Lobos only have one win by more than 7 points in their past seven games.  They also have a weak defense that has permitted 32.0 points per game on 6.0 yards per play at home this season.

Total to watch:

Georgia Tech at North Carolina (58)

Georgia Tech is known for their run based offense and triple-option attack.  However, they have also shown the ability to throw the ball this season, averaging 10.1 yards per pass.  They had a very balanced offensive attack last week in their 38-35 win versus Duke as the Yellow Jackets gained 605 total yards (341 rushing / 264 passing).  Georgia Tech has now scored at least 34 points or more in each of their past three games, but they have allowed at least 35 points or more in three of their past four games.

North Carolina is also a strong offensive team that is averaging 32.5 points per game on 6.5 yards per play this season (versus opponents that average just 30.7 ppg and 6.0 yppl).  North Carolina should have another big offensive games this week as they will be fresh and focused coming off a bye week.  These teams have played two high scoring games with 69 and 91 total points scored the past two seasons.

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