Sharps are closely monitoring these Week 11 college football games


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Each week during the college football season, Covers Expert Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now:

UNLV (+7.5) vs. Wyoming

This line has dropped from +8 to +7.5, so play it now before it hits the key number of +7.  Wyoming has taken advantage of a strong home field with altitude this season, going 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS), however the Cowboys are just 2-2 SU (1-2 ATS) on the road this year.  They have a weak defense that is permitting 32.5 points per game and 6.4 yards per play away from home.

UNLV has been a better team at home this season, going 2-2 SU, compared to 1-4 SU on the road.  The Runnin’ Rebels have been a strong offensive team at home this year, averaging 40.2 points per game on 7.4 yards per play. They have out-rushed their opponents 296-133 rushing yards (6.6-3.5 yards per rush) on their home field.

Spread to wait on:

Indiana (+7) vs. Penn State

This line is currently +6.5 to +7 in most locations and might rise higher to +7.5 by this weekend.  The public will want to back Penn State after a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS the past four games.  However, the Nittany Lions are due for a letdown after big wins versus Ohio State and Iowa in their past three games.  Penn State is just 1-2 SU on the road this season where they have allowed 38.3 points per game.

Indiana enters this game off back-to-back wins with solid offensive performances, scoring 75 points combined on 1,217 total yards.  The Hoosiers have played better than their overall 27.1 points per game offensive number indicates as they have gained 6.1 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 5.7 yppl).  Indiana has been particularly strong throwing the ball, averaging 8.3 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow just 7.1 ypp).

Total to watch:

California at Washington State (83.5)

California remains a horrible defensive team this season, going 7-2 to the Over, while allowing 44.4 points on 528 total yards per game (versus opponents that average just 34.1 ppg and 439 yards).  Those numbers have been consistently bad in conference games as California has allowed 46.8 points and 540 yards per game.  The Golden Bears have allowed 47, 49, 45, and 66 points in their past four games.

Washington State has a potent offense that is averaging 43.0 points on 502 total yards per game this season (versus opponents that allow just 32.3 ppg and 446 yards).  The Cougars have been even stronger at home where they are 4-1 SU and averaging 49.0 points on 529 total yards per game.  Washington State does have a decent defense this year which is allowing just 24.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play (versus opponents that average 30.0 ppg and 6.2 yppl).  The question is if the Cougars can slow down a strong California offense that is averaging 39.7 points on 517 total yards per game this season (versus opponents that allow just 29.0 ppg and 417 yards).

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