Sharps are closely monitoring these Week 13 college football games

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Each week during the college football season, Covers Expert Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now:

Texas (-2.5) vs. TCU

Reports are indicating that Texas head coach Charlie Strong will be fired after this game on Friday.  The Longhorns are just 16-20 SU in his three seasons and are coming off a bad loss, 24-21, in overtime as a 23.5-point road favorite at Kansas last Saturday.  However, the current situation should provide motivation for the Longhorns and they can still become bowl eligible with a win this week.

TCU was in a good situation last Saturday as a 6-point home favorite versus Oklahoma State, but the Horned Frogs came out completely flat in their 31-6 loss.  That is a bad sign and TCU is now a terrible 2-8 ATS in all games this year.

Spread to wait on:

Missouri (+9) vs. Arkansas

This line will likely rise higher by game time as Missouri leading rusher, RB Damarea Crockett, is expected to be suspended.  However, the Tigers still have a solid backup in RB Ish Witter who actually leads the team in carries (157) this season and has gained 738 rushing yards (4.7 ypr).

Regardless of the running back situation, Missouri should still have plenty of success against a terrible Arkansas run defense that is permitting 216 rushing yards per game on 6.3 yards per carry this season (versus opponents that average just 5.0 ypr).  The Razorbacks have been a horrible defensive team on the road this year, allowing 45.2 points and 582 yards per game on 8.1 yards per play, including allowing 327 rushing yards per game (8.1 ypr) away from home.

Total to watch:

Auburn at Alabama (46.5)

This total is currently off the board in many locations due to the uncertainty of two key players on Auburn’s offense.  Quarterback Sean White missed last week’s game and is questionable with a shoulder injury.  He is averaging 65% completions and 8.3 yards per pass this year.  Backup Jeremy Johnson played well last week, but that was against a horrible Alabama A&M team as a 54-point favorite.  Leading rusher, RB Kamryn Pettway (1,106 yards / 6.4 ypr), has missed the past two games and is still questionable with a leg injury.

Alabama is easily the best team in the nation.  They have been dominant on both sides of the ball.  On offense, the Crimson Tide averages 40.3 points per game on 6.7 yards per play, but they will now face a tough Auburn defense that permits just 14.3 points per game on 4.7 yards per play this year.  Alabama’s defense has been even stronger, allowing just 11.4 points per game on 4.0 yards per play this season.


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